Bengals vs. Dolphins odds, line, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, NFL predictions by dialed-in model

The Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals will clash on Thursday Night Football in a meeting between two of the AFC’s most talented teams. The Dolphins (3-0) are coming off a stunning 21-19 win over the defending AFC East champion Buffalo Bills last Sunday. The Bengals (1-2), who lost 23-20 to the Los Angeles Rams in last year’s Super Bowl, are coming off a 27-12 victory over the New York Jets after two close losses to start the season. Miami leads the all-time series 17-7 and is hoping to have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa available for the game after leaving Sunday’s matchup with the Bills with a sore ankle and back.

Kickoff from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Bengals vs. Dolphins odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 48.5. Before making any Dolphins vs. Bengals picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Dolphins vs. Bengals and just locked in its picks and TNF predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Dolphins vs. Bengals:

  • Bengals vs. Dolphins spread: Cincinnati -3.5
  • Bengals vs. Dolphins over/under: 48.5 points 
  • Bengals vs. Dolphins money line: Dolphins +162, Bengals -195
  • MIA: Dolphins are 4-0 against the spread in their last four September games 
  • CIN: Bengals have covered seven straight games against teams with winning records 
  • Bengals vs. Dolphins picks: See picks here

Featured Game | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins

Why the Bengals can cover

Quarterback Joe Burrow will face the Dolphins for the first time in his career. In two career games against AFC East foes, Burrow has been steady, completing 44 of 70 passes (62.9 percent) for 534 yards, six touchdowns and one interception for a 108.9 rating. After two mediocre efforts in the first two weeks, Burrow was sharp in Sunday’s win over the New York Jets. He completed 23 of 36 passes (63.9 percent) for 275 yards and three scores for a rating of 114.9.

Defensively, end Trey Hendrickson will be looking for his second big game in a row. Against the Jets, he registered his first 2.5 sacks of the season and forced a career-high two fumbles. He has nine tackles on the year, including six solo, with one tackle for loss. In 64 games over six seasons with the New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals, Hendrickson has 108 tackles, including 74 solo, with 36.5 sacks, eight forced fumbles and three pass breakups.

Why the Dolphins can cover

Provided Tua Tagovailoa can go, Miami’s passing game looks formidable. Tagovailoa is second in the league in passing yards with 925 and is tied for third with eight touchdown passes. He will look for a completion percentage of higher than 70 and a passer rating of 120 or higher for the third consecutive start. In his last outing against Cincinnati, he threw for 296 yards and a score.

Miami has a one-two punch at the wide receiver position with Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Waddle ranks second in the league with 342 receiving yards, while Hill is third with 317. Against the Bills in Week 3, Waddle caught four passes and registered his third career game with at least 100 receiving yards. In 19 games to start his career, he has 123 receptions, the second-most by a player in his first 20 career games in NFL history. Hill has had success against Cincinnati. In the 2021 AFC Championship Game as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs, he had seven catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. In seven career games on Thursday Night Football, Hill has a touchdown reception in six games.

How to make Dolphins vs. Bengals picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under the point total, calling for 48 points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the model’s TNF picks at SportsLine

So who wins Dolphins vs. Bengals on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Bengals spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,000 on its NFL picks since 2017, and find out.

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